A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
